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30 Sep 2012
U.S. shares ended into green territory on Thursday, with the S&P 500 snapping out of a five-day losing streak, after the Spanish government announced its budget plan for the next year and after investors started speculating that the Chinese government would step up to provide additional stimulus to the local economy. All major indices are on their track to post decent gains for the quarter, with Dow Jones up approximately 5% and the S&P and NASDAQ each 6% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 72.46 points, or 0.54%, to end the day at 13,485.97, putting an end to a four-day losing streak. General Electric and Intel were among the best performing blue-chip stocks. The broader S&P 500 added 13.83 points, or 0.96%, to finish the session at 1,447.15. The NASDAQ advanced 42.90 points, or 1.39%, to end at 3,136.60. The CBOE Volatility Index, considered by many as the best indicator of fear in the market, slipped below 15. Most key S&P sectors rose, led by technology and energy, while utilities were the biggest decliner. General Electric posted gains after the giant upgraded its 2012 industrial revenue growth forecast to 10%. Apple climbed approximately 2% after declining for three consecutive sessions. Traders of binary call options were once again the biggest winners in Google as the stock rose to a fresh new all-time high as Evercore raised its price target for the company to $860 from $750. On the economic front, the U.S. economy’s GDP rose by a modest 1.3%, which is its slowest increase since the third quarter of 2011. Durable goods orders took a severe hit, plunging by the most in three and a half years. Pending home sales also disappointed, dropping in August due to a supply shortage. On a brighter note, the weekly claims for unemployment benefits came in better-than-expected. Jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since July, while the four-week moving average for new claims rose for the first time in four weeks. Treasury prices slipped after the U.S. government auctioned $29 billion worth of 7-year notes at a relatively high yield of 1.055% and bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61.
Asian equities moved into green territory on Friday as investors grew increasingly optimistic that the economic measures and budget plans announced by Spain yesterday will help the south European country handle its debt problems without relying on international assistance. In its meeting on Thursday, Spain revealed a detailed plan for economic change and a budget, dominated by spending cuts, rather than tax increases. Madrid is also in negotiations with the European Union institutions about the conditions of an aid package, which will allow the European Central Bank to use its new bond-buying program to lower the borrowing costs of the debt-laden country. The FTSE CNBC Asia 100 Index, which tracks the performance of markets across Asia, added 0.2%. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei share average moved into the red as market participants are expecting local companies with big exposure to the Chinese market to release disappointing results for the quarter. The blue-chip index shed 0.3% to trade at 8,919.44 at noon local time, but it still managed to stay ahead of its 75-day moving average at 8,864.45. The broader Topix erased 0.5% to trade at 742.06. South Korean equities inched slightly higher as investors were optimistic about the budget plans of the Spanish government, but the turnover remained rather low as we have two holiday celebrations in the country next week. Technological giant Samsung Electronics moved 1.1% higher, adding to the 1% gain it posted in the previous day, when the company announced its new Galaxy Note 2 smartphone. Australian stocks traded almost unchanged around noon in today’s session as traders remained pessimistic about the ability of China’s new plan to boost commodities demand in the country. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index inched 1.2 point higher to trade at 4,385.4. The blue-chip index added 0.5% yesterday. New Zealand’s benchmark NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 3,838.4. Hong Kong equities climbed on hopes that China will be forced to use additional measures in the upcoming holiday in order to stimulate the local economy. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.3% to 20,815.6. The China Enterprises Index of the best local companies moved 0.4% higher. In the mainland, the Shanghai Composite traded almost unchanged in the early hours of the session. In Southeast Asia, Singapore’s Straits Times Index and Malaysia’s KL Composite both advanced, gaining 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively.
European equities moved into green territory on Friday after Spain released its 2013 budget plan, which revolved around decrease in spending, rather than increase in taxation. At the same time, the country announced its economic reform plans, which include the government passing 43 new laws in the course of the next six months. Today more news are coming from Spain, where the results of an audit of Spanish banks will be released. The audit report will show if the banking sector of the country needs additional capitalization. France is also in the news as President Francois Hollande is scheduled to announce his budget plans for the next year. Hollande has previously stated that the budget will be the “toughest in thirty years” as the French government has to close a gap of 30 billion euros ($39 billion), using either cuts in expenditures or additional sources of financing. In the U.K, Martin Wheatley, who is the managing director of the Financial Service Authority, will suggest the Libor system be abolished. The British Bankers Association, who was the one responsible for overseeing the rate, will be stripped of that obligation. In stock news, Heineken looks very close to finishing an acquisition deal, whose target is Tiger beer brewer Asia Pacific Breweries as shareholders of Fraser & Neave voted in favor of the sale of the company’s stake in the brewer.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
As we mentioned above the Dow moved higher in yesterday’s session, paring some of the losses it had posted throughout the week. The benchmark started the day at the lows and moved upwards all day long, touching highs of 13,521.34 before finishing at 13,485.97. Today futures are indicating that buyers of binary call options will once again be the winners. But before jumping to buy U.S. stock, bear in mind that we have the core PCE price index, personal spending, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures announced later today. All these news have a potentially market-moving ability. Technically speaking, support in the Dow is provided by the 50-period moving average around 13,448, while resistance continues to stand at the 13,600 level. Oscillators are in mid-range with the relative strength index at 49 and the stochastic at 29. The MACD has just crossed the key 0 level, but it is still way ahead of the mid-September lows.
Yesterday gold was very benevolent to traders of binary call options. The precious metal started the session at 1753.82 and moved higher all day long, pushing above both its 25-period and its 50-period moving averages. We finished the day at 1777.86 after testing the 1780 level on couple of occasions, all of which failed. Today the rally in the bullion continues, but the volatility is somewhat subdued as investors are reluctant to buy at the highs. Currently gold is changing hands at 1781.10 dollars per troy ounce after touching highs of 1782.96 earlier in the day. Technically speaking, support in the precious metal is provided by the 25-period and the 50-period moving averages around 1765, while resistance stands at 1780. Oscillators are moving higher with the stochastic already in overbought territory, standing at 96. The relative strength index, on the other hand, is at 66. The MACD has just crossed the key 0 level and is issuing buy signals.
The bears continued to dominate the USD/JPY in yesterday’s session, sending the U.S. dollar to fresh new lows against its Japanese counterpart. The decline was steady and provided the traders of binary put options with a lot of opportunities for making decent profits. The currency pair finished the session at 77.61 after touching lows of 77.53 earlier on. Today we moved to 77.40 in the early hours of the day, but later pared all our losses and moved into positive territory. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 77.66, slightly below its 25-period moving average, which is acting as a resistance. Support, on the other hand, is provided by the lows we touched in mid-September around 77.40. Oscillators are moving close to the lower bands of their respective ranges, indicating that we are in a short-term oversold territory. The stochastic is currently standing at 35 and the relative strength index is at 43. The MACD is in negative territory and is issuing buy signals.
22 Sep 2012
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13 Sep 2012
This is the main media digest of the day – September 13:
Italy Says It Won’t Seek Aid.
European Lenders Keep Ties to Iran.
Fink Belies Being Boring Telling Customers to Buy Stocks.
Dutch Voters Buck Euro Debt Crisis to Re-Elect Rutte as Premier.
Anti-Europe sentiment rises sharply in UK.
Manhattan Apartment Vacancy Rate Climbs After Rents Reach Record.
Well-to-do get mortgage help from Uncle Sam.
Princeton Endowment Expected to Rise Less Than 5% in Year.
Protesters Encircle U.S. Embassy in Yemen.
US groups step up sales of non-core units.
The European economic update of the day looks in the following way:
Russia Budget Level $529.4bn. Previous $282.6bn
Switzerland Producer & Import Prices – 0.5% m/m – lower than expected. Consensus -0.1% m/m.
Sweden Consumer Prices – CPIF 0.1% m/m 0.7% y/y. Previous -0.4% m/m 0.8% y/y.
Sweden Unemployment Rate 7.2% – higher than expected. Consensus 6.8%. Switzerland Monetary Policy Meeting 0.0%-0.25% – in line with expectations. Consensus 0.0%-0.25%.
Italy Harmonised CPI 0.0% m/m 3.3% y/y. Previous -1.7% m/m 3.6% y/y.
31 Aug 2012
Today GBP/USD increased around 40 pips in later European session. Cable moved slowly up before the opening of markets in United States. British pound topped the highest level since four days but several minutes after start of the American session cable dropper deeper. The accelerator of this fall was that Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that his government would delay deciding whether to seek a sovereign bailout until the aid conditions are clear. Rajoy and French president Francois Hollande pressed the European Central Bank to implement decisions from a June to reduce borrowing costs in Spain and Italy as euro-area policy makers struggle to enact an emergency plan. British pound lose around 0.30% against the dollar and break below 1.5800. The support level that stopped the cable was 1.5780 for the moment. Break below this level could lead the price to next support levels around 1.5740 – 1.5750 witches are crucial for whole bullish trend from 1.5490. On upside first resistance is projected around previous support level 1.5810. Tomorrow all expectations are focused at the speech of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole that could take big effect on financial markets.
20 Jul 2012
The euro slid broadly on Friday, setting a two-year low against the dollar after Spain's
Valencia region said it would seek central government help to
repay its debts, raising concerns the euro zone's fourth-largest
economy may be forced to seek a full-scale international
A cut by the Spanish government of its economic growth
forecasts for 2012 and 2013 also pressured the euro. Spain's
revised estimates indicated that the country would be mired in
recession well into next year.
As a result, the single currency plunged to record lows
against the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollar. It
also hit a more than 11-year low against the yen, a
three-and-a-half-month low against sterling and multi-month
troughs versus the Norwegian and Swedish crowns.
Spanish 5- and 10-year debt yields surged to euro-era highs
as Valencia, Spain's most indebted region alongside Catalonia,
sought help under an 18-billion euro program passed on Th ursday
aimed at helping regional finances..
"It's all about Spanish bond yields today and the euro as a
result is under pressure," said Martin Briggs, risk advisory
consultant for global payments company AFEX Markets Plc in
"We have been telling our clients that this euro is a slow
motion train crash that's happening in front of our eyes. No one
seems to have the will or the ability to make the tough
decisions that need to take place."
A statement saying euro zone finance ministers formally
approved Spain's bank bailout failed to offset the gloom.
The euro fell as low as $1.2143 against the U.S.
dollar, its weakest level since mid-June 2010, as traders took
out an options barrier at $1.2150. It was last at $1.2158, down
nearly 1.0 percent on the day, declining for a third straight
session and posting losses of about 0.7 percent this week.
It was the third week of declines for the single currency
against the dollar.
The single currency hit record lows against the
higher-yielding Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar
and New Zealand dollar.
The euro hit a more than 11-year low against the Japanese
yen of 95.34 yen, a three-and-a-half year low against
the British pound, a four-month trough against the
Norwegian crown and an 11-1/2 year low against the
A statement by the ECB saying Greek government bonds are not
eligible as collateral did not help the euro, with the currency
declining further against the dollar on the news.
Earlier in the session the euro dipped on a German newspaper
report that quoted a member of a party in the coalition
government as saying euro zone countries should comply with
agreed reforms or leave the bloc, traders said.
The comments repeated the position taken earlier this year
by the same lawmaker, Gerda Hasselfeldt, of the Bavarian
Christian Social Union.
The euro has also taken a hit since the European Central
Bank lowered its deposit rate, which acts as the floor for euro
zone money market rates, to zero earlier this month.
Two-year bond yields have dipped into negative territory in
core triple-A rated Germany and the Netherlands. The negative
interest rates could prompt investors who are bearish on the
euro's outlook to shift money elsewhere to secure some return on
capital, market players said.
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